The story of how advanced analytics, machine learning, and disciplined execution turned $10,000 into $14,793 in a single NFL season
Sports betting is notoriously difficult. The market is efficient, sportsbooks have access to sophisticated data, and most bettors lose over time.
The key isn't just predicting game outcomes - it's identifying situations where your analysis is better than the market's collective wisdom, and sizing your bets intelligently based on confidence and risk.
We set out to build a system that could do both: find genuine edge through comprehensive analysis, and manage risk through probabilistic modeling.
Every game is analyzed through 40+ situational factors:
Trained on 25 years of NFL data (2000-2024):
Pure deterministic model. Steady ~$2,000 profit validated the core engine.
Integrated ML-powered sizing. Profit growth accelerated significantly.
3.66 MAE (best all season). Bankroll grew $3,200 → $4,793.
The key to profitability isn't just making accurate predictions - it's knowing which predictions to bet on and how much to wager.
Our system generated predictions for all 284 games, but only wagered on 156 (55%). This selectivity, combined with intelligent position sizing, is what turned market-competitive predictions into 47.9% profit.
The Formula: Market-Competitive Predictions × Intelligent Selection × Dynamic Sizing = 47.9% Profit
We ran 2025 in stealth mode with family/friends. For 2026, we're considering opening access. Request early invitation for betting analysis and predictions.