Sports Betting Fundamentals
Essential concepts, mathematics, and strategies that separate successful bettors from casual gamblers
The Absolute Basics
In spread betting, you're not just picking the winner—you're betting on the margin of victory.
Example:
Tampa Bay -7.5 vs New Orleans +7.5
- • Tampa Bay must win by 8+ points to cover
- • New Orleans covers if they lose by 7 or fewer, or win
Bet directly on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the margin.
Example:
Tampa Bay -180 / New Orleans +160
- • Bet $180 to win $100 on Tampa Bay
- • Bet $100 to win $160 on New Orleans
The bookmaker's commission. At standard -110 odds, you must win 52.38% of bets just to break even.
Standard -110 Bet:
- • Risk $110 to win $100
- • Need 52.38% win rate to break even
- • House edge: 4.55% on balanced action
Core Principles of Success
Success comes from finding situations where your assessment of probability differs significantly from the bookmaker's implied odds.
Key Concept:
If you believe a team has a 60% chance of covering a spread, but the bookmaker's line implies only 52.4% probability, you've found value.
- • Everything begins and ends with identifying value
- • Bet only when you have a mathematical edge
- • Emotional betting destroys bankrolls
Even with an edge, poor money management can lead to ruin. Treat betting as investment management, not entertainment.
Fundamental Rules:
- • Bet 1-3% of total bankroll per wager
- • Scale bet size based on your edge
- • Never chase losses with larger bets
- • Maintain discipline at all times
As your bankroll grows or shrinks, your unit sizes should adjust proportionally.
Understanding Odds Formats
American Odds
Most common in US sportsbooks
- • +150: Bet $100 to win $150
- • -200: Bet $200 to win $100
Decimal Odds
Popular internationally
- • 2.50: $1 bet returns $2.50
- • 1.50: $1 bet returns $1.50
Fractional Odds
Traditional UK format
- • 3/2: Win $3 for every $2 bet
- • 1/2: Win $1 for every $2 bet
Quick Conversion Example
American
+150
Decimal
2.50
Fractional
3/2
All represent the same 40% implied probability (60% break-even rate)
Advanced Concepts
Parlays
Combine multiple bets where all selections must win. Higher payouts but exponentially lower win probability. We only recommend parlays in specific situations where the results of both bets are correlated to each other.
2-team parlay at -110 each: +264 payout, need 72.4% accuracy per pick
Teasers
Adjust point spreads in your favor (typically 6-7 points in NFL), but all games must win.
6-point teaser: Turn -3.5 into +2.5, but need ~70%+ win rate on all games wagered on.
The "hold" is the bookmaker's built-in profit margin. Lower hold means better value for bettors.
Example Calculation:
- • Team A: -110 (52.38% implied probability)
- • Team B: -110 (52.38% implied probability)
- • Total: 104.76% (4.76% hold)
Shop for lower holds by comparing lines across multiple sportsbooks. Even small differences compound over time.
- Value identification is the foundation of all profitable betting
- Disciplined bankroll management protects your capital
- Shop lines across multiple sportsbooks for the best prices
- Understand odds formats to quickly identify value
- Emotional betting is the enemy of long-term success
- Time and research create sustainable edges